The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Is Personal for Every South African

How geopolitical conflicts have affected commodity prices

On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched an air campaign against Iran. Within days, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz. The 39km wide channel through which roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil trade and 20% of global LNG flows daily. The International Energy Agency called it the "greatest global energy security challenge in history." The Dallas Fed modelled scenarios where Brent crude hits $132 per barrel if the closure lasts two quarters.

Brent crude surged 10 to 13% to around $80 to $82 per barrel in the first days of March. By mid-April, with shipping traffic through the strait down to a fraction of its pre-war levels, Brent had crossed $90, then $100, then $110 per barrel. As of late April 2026, it sits above $110 per barrel as Iran negotiates terms and ceasefire talks stall.

What this means at the pump

South Africa is a net importer of refined fuel. Our two operational crude refineries, NATREF and Astron Energy, rely on oil sourced primarily from West Africa and elsewhere, not the Persian Gulf directly. Sasol's Secunda plant, which produces synthetic fuels from coal, provides an important buffer. But none of this insulates us from the international crude price.

The Central Energy Fund's mid-month projections for May 2026 are eye-watering. Petrol 93 is tracking for a 186 to 202 cent per litre increase. Petrol 95 is tracking higher still. Diesel, the artery of the SA economy, is facing an increase of 624 to 709 cents per litre. The temporary R3.00 per litre General Fuel Levy relief that National Treasury implemented in April expires on 5 May 2026.

When diesel goes up by R6 to R7 a litre, it doesn't stop at the pump. It moves through the entire economy. Transport and logistics costs rise. Food producers pass higher input costs through to retailers. Retailers pass them to consumers. Taxi associations apply for fare increases. The SARB watches inflation tick up and faces an impossible choice between rate relief and price stability. This is the mechanism by which a naval standoff in the Persian Gulf becomes a cost-of-living crisis in Soweto.

SA's energy vulnerability is structural, not accidental

South Africa's energy dependence on imported fuel is less about any single decision and more about structural failure accumulated over decades. SA has among the best solar irradiation on earth. The Karoo alone could accommodate solar capacity that would fundamentally transform our energy economics. The renewable energy buildout has finally begun through the REIPPPP. But it is decades behind where we should be, and it does nothing to address liquid fuel dependency. Transportation runs on oil. Heavy industry runs on diesel.

Sasol (SOL): The stock the market is not sleeping on

Sasol's share price was 73.4% higher in late April than it was on 26 February 2026, the day before the conflict began. It has surged 233.8% over the prior year. Higher oil prices are unambiguously positive for Sasol's income statement. For every R1 per litre increase in local fuel prices, there is a material uplift in Sasol's EBITDA and cash flow from its integrated synthetic fuels operations. Sasol's directors have revised fuel sales volume growth guidance upward for FY2026 from 5 to 10% to 10 to 15%.

Exxaro (EXX) is a different story. Exxaro is primarily a coal miner, not a fuel producer. Its exposure to the oil price is indirect, through energy costs and the general commodity price environment. The channel between an oil price spike and Exxaro's earnings is considerably longer than it is for Sasol.

The structural point stands

SA imports roughly 1.8 million barrels of fuel per day equivalent in a combination of crude oil, refined products, and liquefied petroleum gas. Every shock like the current one costs South Africans in real terms. Fuel bills, food prices, transport costs, and ultimately the SARB's ability to cut rates. Germany, Denmark, and Chile built long-term resilience at the cost of short-term capex, and are among the countries that have accelerated their energy transitions. South Africa keeps deferring that capex, which means we keep paying the shock premium every time a geopolitical flashpoint hits a chokepoint we have no influence over.

The IEA projects that if the Strait remains closed for a full quarter, WTI oil reaches $98 per barrel. Two quarters: $132. Three quarters: $167. None of those scenarios involves South Africa having any leverage on the outcome.

Investor Takeaway

Sasol is the clearest JSE-listed beneficiary of sustained oil prices above $90 per barrel, but it is a leveraged play in both directions. If the ceasefire holds and the strait reopens, Sasol's recent gains could reverse sharply. For the broader SA economy, elevated fuel prices will feed through to inflation, putting pressure on bond prices and limiting SARB's room to cut. Watch the CEF's weekly fuel price guidance and the 10-year SA government bond yield as your two most reliable real-time indicators of how this crisis is being priced locally.